Arsenal are finally back, which means we need to ensure that our blood pressure tablets are well stocked up. All the more, when you come to the realization that we kick things off away to Manchester City, a team we haven’t managed to beat in the Premier league since November, 2015 back when Mikel Arteta was an Arsenal player. Fast forward to 2020, there are only 2 players from that side who are still with us – Hector Bellerin and Mesut Özil. So much has changed in these 5 years.
We have gone from a side that were a couple players away from competing for the league to a team in desperate need of an overhaul to even make Champions league football. Whilst the average quality of the league as a whole has gone up, coupled with the likes of City and Liverpool trying to establish their dynasty – Arsenal really haven’t covered themselves in glory and we can only look at ourselves. There are numerous factors as to why we are in a mess of sorts, but this shall be a topic for another day.
On a more positive note, the signs so far under Arteta gives us plenty of reason to smile and as a team, we are showing good signs of improvement – we come into this game on the back of 3 back to back Premier league wins. Even if we are yet to win an away game under Arteta, we can be a stubborn side to beat, evidenced by the fact that we are yet to lose an away game in all competitions under his reign so far.
Now let’s get into the game. Judging by Arteta’s press conference comments, Arsenal are going to play their own style and not think much about City, with Arteta stating that he will drive the players ‘mad’ if they are to focus on every aspect of Guardiola’s side. Now does this mean we are going to throw in the kitchen sink like how we did numerous times under Wenger? It is extremely unlikely.
Whilst Arteta has spoken about wanting us to have our own style and build a philosophy, he is also cognizant of the need to win games. Mikel has made certain changes to try and give us a better balance – the right back staying deeper and Xhaka covering as a left back to allow Saka to maintain a high position for example.
This means we are not always expansive enough to his liking. It is a personnel issue, but for now Arteta can only work with what he has.
[Lineup made Via buildlineup.com]
I expect Arsenal to continue with a 4-2-3-1 and whilst many have clamoured for Joe Willock to start this game for understandable reasons, I reckon Arteta will persist with Mesut Özil. Reiss Nelson on the right will surprise some, but it may prove to be a better fit considering Özil and Nicolas Pepe sometimes tend to get in the way of each other and are both very left footed.
It is a little detail, but against West Ham, Arteta took Pepe off and brought on Nelson and the team showed better balance for the 10-15 mins which eventually led to Lacazette’s game winning goal. It is something that has continued into the friendlies, with Pepe predominantly featuring when Willock was on the pitch.
But let’s get one thing clear – if a player starts tomorrow it isn’t because Arteta wants to play them 90 minutes. Certain players such as Willock and Martinelli might be able to cause more damage when opposing defenders have tired legs. This, along with the fact that it will be our first high intensity game in over three months will mean there will be tinkering.
David Luiz on the bench will definitely raise some eyebrows – we have seen Pablo Mari and Shkodran Mustafi being paired in the friendly and they went on to keep a clean sheet in the half. I don’t want to read too much into the that, but Arteta is clear that he wants to play with a left footed centre half.
Luiz started our last game prior to lockdown in an unfamiliar right centre back position with Mustafi out injured. However, the German international is now back to full fitness and I can see him reclaiming that slot.
The five substitutions rule will undoubtedly have an impact on the way both managers think. We may see a couple of substitutions at half time if not earlier. It will undoubtedly challenge Arteta’s in game management.
Tactically, as Pep admitted in today’s presser, no other coach in the league has a better understanding of Manchester City’s setup than his former right hand man, Arteta. While Mikel won’t go full Unai Emery like last year when we played a flat 4-4-2 with Kolasinac as a winger, he will look for ways to exploit City through his own philosophy.
[Lineup made Via buildlineup.com]
Manchester City set up in their 4-3-3, with a base midfielder (Rodri/Fernandinho) and 2 number #8/10 hybrids in front – whether it is KDB/Bernardo/David Silva/Gundogan, who are excellent at finding those pockets of space and causing damage.
Once City reach the final third, it is very difficult to stop them as their players have fantastic natural ability. This is a team that had 19 shots at Anfield against this incredible Liverpool side. They will make openings and they will have chances – what we must do is limit the number of times they are able to open us up.
City’s base midfielder, Rodri plays in what can be termed as a ‘lone #6’. He is the one tasked with initiating attacks and as well, stopping the transition. Teams that have been able to find success against City have predominantly crowded out the midfield area with at least 3 hard working midfielders and have had extra personnel at the back by playing a 5 at the back formation.
Have a look at Wolves, who completed a double over them as well as Manchester United who have beaten City thrice this season, including TWICE at the Etihad. Watch those games and you would come to realize that these two teams were able to contain City in the middle and absolutely open them up on the transition by creating numerical advantages around Rodri.
People speak a lot about how good Guardiola’s side is when it comes to getting wingers or full backs into great crossing positions to play ‘cutbacks’. The key is to contain them in the middle to cut out the passing lanes to the wingers in the first place. Once someone like Riyadh Mahrez finds himself 1 v 1 with your full back, it will not end well 9 out of 10 times.
If there was one formation I would say is best to deploy against this City side, it is the 5-3-2 or a similar variant like the 5-3-1-1, the systems used by Wolves and United respectively. However, I don’t expect Arteta to change – he has played a 4-2-3-1 every single game in charge and will continue to do so.
A player who could have a key role to mark Rodri would likely be the center forward – one of Alexandre Lacazette/Eddie Nketiah.
Kieran Tierney being back is a huge boost as it allows Granit Xhaka to stay more central and focus on cutting out spaces for City’s clever attacking midfielders. Ceballos will be tasked with helping us retain the ball and help us play out of City’s press – if anyone can do that from our squad, it is him.
Do I expect us to take 3 points tomorrow? Absolutely not. We haven’t taken a league win against a ‘big six’ side away from home since January, 2015! Before the season started, I marked Liverpool (A) and City (A) as wildcard games.
My intuition for this one is we will see good fight and marked improvement from the 3-0 defeat at the Emirates back in December. I will be optimistic and say it will be a hard fought 1-1 ‘WIN’. More than anything, I just cannot wait to see us back in action.
